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The key to reading Maiden races this Turf season
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Edgar Allan Poe. Pfr Bodacious Name. Vive La Difference. What are you to do? By being disciplined, intelligent and sticking to a system that works, you can increase your odds of success.
Understanding the Types and Classes of Horse Races
Bookmakers love the bettor who places bets on whim, on the name of a horse, on the colour eyes of the jockey -- on anything but a system. You need a system if you are to win! The worst possible system you could use is no system at all! You must focus on the most dependable horses if you are to correctly pick the day's best bet.
Favourites will almost always be the ones you will look at. With good reason. They are favourites for a reason. The question is, how to improve those chances! The most reliable favourites on any given day inevitably are those who occupy the lower end of the price range. You must remember that because of all the variables involved in horse racing, the actual favourite cannot possibly be determined until right before the race.
Obviously, you will have to consult with one of the printed betting forecasts such as the national dailies or The Sporting Life. Study each race to be run that day and write down the names of the five favourites with the lowest odds. In the event that there is a tie, include all such runners for further consideration. From this short list, you will be determining the day's single horse selection. Do not fear low odds. Short odds should not be rejected due to a cursory examination.
Even money often translates into an outstanding value if its true price should be There are those who reject the favourite on the grounds that they can get better "value" elsewhere. We call these people fools. What is the "value" of backing a horse at if, in reality, there is only a one in ten chance that your bet will succeed? There is only one person who will profit from a "system" like that -- the bookmaker.
The real key to successful betting is not being greedy. Do not look for a small stake to garner you thousands of pounds. Rather, use a system which will consistently make you a winner.
Financially -- and psychologically -- winning small but often is a smart approach to any kind of wager. Okay, so now you have your five favourites. What next?
understand the lingo
Your next gambit is to establish a system to evaluate these five contenders. By following this point system, you will take the guess work out of your evaluation. Forecast Odds Points Given 67 65 63 62 60 58 55 54 52 Evens 50 This makes sense. After all, winning begets winning. For this reason, we can begin to quantify this aspect of our evaluation. If a horse placed 1st in its last race, award 45 points.
If a horse placed 2nd in its last race, award 40 points.
If a horse placed 3rd in its last race, award 40 points. For all other finishes, award 35 points. Also, horses that have yet to race in the current season receive 35 points irrespective of their final finish of the previous season. Another consideration in quantifying your decision is the value of your horse's last race. All others should follow this criteria: Last race prize same as current race, award 40 points.
You should also bear in mind that favourites win more regularly in non-handicap events. For this reason, it makes more sense to award more points to contenders in these events. Therefore, award 40 points to a contender running in a nonhandicap race and 30 points for running in handicap or nursery races.
Another consideration in evaluating your contender is the size of the field. After careful review of the long history of racing, we have concluded that favourites succeed less often in events containing a large field. Therefore, we reject the "folk wisdom" that a bigger field means a "bigger" certainty and suggest the following awards: 45 points in those races with 10 or fewer runners. Market leaders often have a poorer record in competitive races. Consider the following point award: 45 points if there are no rivals which won the last time out.
If three or more rivals won their last time out, award 30 points. Finally, if a horse has demonstrated success on the day's course then this must be factored into your calculations. Award your horse 10 points if it has previously won on the course and 10 points if it has previously won over the day's distance.
source Once you have factored in all these considerations, tally the points you have awarded to each of your five contenders.